No, not my "guessing the winner of the latest horse race" streak, my "blogging every day" streak. I was a bit concerned I wouldn't be able to maintain it, when the power went out a couple of hours ago. It had stayed on all day, surprisingly, but of course went off before I took the time to blog! It was only off for about an hour, and we are now back up and running again. We're watching another movie and eating pizza (another good day for that), so with any luck the power will stay on long enough to see how the plot resolves.
It is still pretty windy, and the road at Rodanthe is overwashed. Neither the mainland nor the Hatteras ferries ran today at all, as far as I know. So we are still hunkered down here, but doing fine. No flooding or anything yet. I will keep you posted if it gets any worse (assuming we have power and it is possible to do so!)
Monday, May 7, 2007
Sunday, May 6, 2007
A good day to...
...hunker down and watch movies! We are currently watching our second movie of the day, because outside it is cold and VERY windy. There's another Nor'Easter coming, expected to be similar to the one during this same timeframe two years ago (the one I wrote about a couple of blogs ago, which wrecked the OISFT that year).
A couple of days ago, a neighbor and I had a conversation about the fact that "we need some rain", because it has been dry here for several weeks. After we talked, I remembered that the last time I had a chat with someone about the need for rain, we had a minor Nor'easter with PLENTY of rain (i.e. flooding - remember the picture of the ducks in the street?) Now that there's another one coming, I think maybe I should stop having conversations about needing rain!
Here's the current status: both the mainland and Hatteras ferries are shut down until further notice, gusts up to 70 mph have been clocked at the Hatteras Lighthouse, and more wind and rain are expected. I've pasted the text of the latest email from the Emergency Management group below.
Here's the good news: the old timers say that, in years when the spring brings several Nor'Easters, the hurricane season is uneventful. Two years ago, that proved to be true. We had two pretty annoying Nor'Easters, with the related soundside flooding, etc. followed by a calm hurricane season. So hopefully that will hold true again this year!
From Tony Spencer, Hyde County Emergency Management:
I got the statement below earlier from Sandy in Dare County . When I had sent out the first message this afternoon, I had only what was in my head, received verbally from the Newport Weather Office. The info below emphasizes and puts much of it in writing. This storm has the potential to affect our weather for the next few days, settling back South and actually switching over to a warm core, taking on tropical characteristics and becoming a hybrid. With the significant winds expected, with models including even higher scenarios, visitors and residents should collect loose items. Significant beach erosion and ocean overwash may make Hwy 12 impassable in many spots, particular up on Hatteras Island . All of this seems very similar to the major Nor’Easter we had this same weekend two years ago.
From Sandy :
This system continues indicate a fairly intense storm off the Hatteras coast starting Sunday night through Wednesday. High winds and seas will be our problem and because of the duration of the event we can expect some minor/moderate ocean overwash and beach erosion. Very similar to what the Thanksgiving storm brought. Fire services should prepare for ocean front cottage/homes to become isolated during high tides. Power outages certainly possible as winds could exceed 50mph at times. Monitor NOAA weather radio and local news for weather updates.
From: F. Rosenstein at NOAA
Situation remains fairly similar but with increasing confidence of the evolution and track of this system. An unusual setup. Strong high pressure drops southeastward today and tomorrow with surface wave development along the leading edge front. The low will move well southeastward offshore and become a cutoff low vertically stacked with the mid level air flow. This will be down near31N 73W by Monday evening. This low will then slowly move westward with its center near 31N 76w Tuesday evening with a continued NW drift to off the GA/SC coast Thursday and will remain nearly stationary into next Saturday . There is a distinct possibility as seen by some objective parameters that this system could change from cold core asymmetric to shallow warm core symmetric as it move westward. What this means is that it could begin to take on tropical characteristics in which it could evolve into a hybrid
tropical low. Early in the season for this but with models showing this potential and a trend to move back towards warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, it could transition to that. Has happened before. Last time was early May 2001 with one farther eastward off Bermuda .
My preference this morning was a track and set up more along the Canadian model line thru day 5 Thursday and remaining nearly stationary into Saturday.
Weather...
Sunday NE winds increasing to 40 kts continuing Sunday night into Monday.
Tuesday NE 30 Kts, higher offshore. Rain coming onshore
Wednesday NE becoming more E 25-30 Good chance rain
Thursday SE 20-25 Good chance rain
Friday S 20 higher offshore Good chance rain
Saturday S 20 Again coastal rain chances
Strong NE-N winds will force waters south with tidal flooding lower Pamlico Sound . Winds become more easterly and then SE later in the week will keep up above normal tides. Greater tidal flooding west side of the Sound. The usual rough surf. Continued high winds against the Gulfstream flow for days will develop fully arisen seas and will translate very heavy swells to the beachs.
A couple of days ago, a neighbor and I had a conversation about the fact that "we need some rain", because it has been dry here for several weeks. After we talked, I remembered that the last time I had a chat with someone about the need for rain, we had a minor Nor'easter with PLENTY of rain (i.e. flooding - remember the picture of the ducks in the street?) Now that there's another one coming, I think maybe I should stop having conversations about needing rain!
Here's the current status: both the mainland and Hatteras ferries are shut down until further notice, gusts up to 70 mph have been clocked at the Hatteras Lighthouse, and more wind and rain are expected. I've pasted the text of the latest email from the Emergency Management group below.
Here's the good news: the old timers say that, in years when the spring brings several Nor'Easters, the hurricane season is uneventful. Two years ago, that proved to be true. We had two pretty annoying Nor'Easters, with the related soundside flooding, etc. followed by a calm hurricane season. So hopefully that will hold true again this year!
From Tony Spencer, Hyde County Emergency Management:
I got the statement below earlier from Sandy in Dare County . When I had sent out the first message this afternoon, I had only what was in my head, received verbally from the Newport Weather Office. The info below emphasizes and puts much of it in writing. This storm has the potential to affect our weather for the next few days, settling back South and actually switching over to a warm core, taking on tropical characteristics and becoming a hybrid. With the significant winds expected, with models including even higher scenarios, visitors and residents should collect loose items. Significant beach erosion and ocean overwash may make Hwy 12 impassable in many spots, particular up on Hatteras Island . All of this seems very similar to the major Nor’Easter we had this same weekend two years ago.
From Sandy :
This system continues indicate a fairly intense storm off the Hatteras coast starting Sunday night through Wednesday. High winds and seas will be our problem and because of the duration of the event we can expect some minor/moderate ocean overwash and beach erosion. Very similar to what the Thanksgiving storm brought. Fire services should prepare for ocean front cottage/homes to become isolated during high tides. Power outages certainly possible as winds could exceed 50mph at times. Monitor NOAA weather radio and local news for weather updates.
From: F. Rosenstein at NOAA
Situation remains fairly similar but with increasing confidence of the evolution and track of this system. An unusual setup. Strong high pressure drops southeastward today and tomorrow with surface wave development along the leading edge front. The low will move well southeastward offshore and become a cutoff low vertically stacked with the mid level air flow. This will be down near31N 73W by Monday evening. This low will then slowly move westward with its center near 31N 76w Tuesday evening with a continued NW drift to off the GA/SC coast Thursday and will remain nearly stationary into next Saturday . There is a distinct possibility as seen by some objective parameters that this system could change from cold core asymmetric to shallow warm core symmetric as it move westward. What this means is that it could begin to take on tropical characteristics in which it could evolve into a hybrid
tropical low. Early in the season for this but with models showing this potential and a trend to move back towards warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, it could transition to that. Has happened before. Last time was early May 2001 with one farther eastward off Bermuda .
My preference this morning was a track and set up more along the Canadian model line thru day 5 Thursday and remaining nearly stationary into Saturday.
Weather...
Sunday NE winds increasing to 40 kts continuing Sunday night into Monday.
Tuesday NE 30 Kts, higher offshore. Rain coming onshore
Wednesday NE becoming more E 25-30 Good chance rain
Thursday SE 20-25 Good chance rain
Friday S 20 higher offshore Good chance rain
Saturday S 20 Again coastal rain chances
Strong NE-N winds will force waters south with tidal flooding lower Pamlico Sound . Winds become more easterly and then SE later in the week will keep up above normal tides. Greater tidal flooding west side of the Sound. The usual rough surf. Continued high winds against the Gulfstream flow for days will develop fully arisen seas and will translate very heavy swells to the beachs.
Saturday, May 5, 2007
I can pick 'em
For my last few years of high school and my first couple of years of college, I had a string of accurate picks for the winner of the three horse races which make up the Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes). I would look at or hear a list of the competing horses' names, and I would say "(insert name here) is going to win". I was right for about 9 or 10 in a row. I didn't know anything about the horses, trainers, jockeys, or what the bookies were saying about who was expected to win. One name would just jump out at me. It was a bit odd, and my friends would joke that I should start betting on the races. (I didn't.)
In 2004, I picked Smarty Jones and he won. I don't remember who I picked in 2005, although if I remember correctly I was torn between Afleet Alex (who came in third) and Giacomo (who won), and I never decided on one of them. (We can pretend that, had I decided, I of course would have decided on Giacomo!) Last year, I picked Barbaro to win, and win he did. Poor guy had a rough year after that, and after several surgeries, he finally got to go to horse heaven.
Today, John read me just a handful of the names (6 or so out of the field of 20) for the Kentucky Derby. One "jumped out at me" the way they used to, but I didn't say anything at the time. Later in the day, though, I told several people that the winner would be Street Sense.
When race time rolled around, of course we had to watch. There were several people present, and I told everyone again that I thought the winner would be Street Sense. Three-quarters of the way into the race, when I heard the announcer say that Street Sense was running 19th out of the field of 20, I turned to John and said "guess I can't pick 'em anymore." Imagine my surprise when Street Sense came from behind in the last 1/4 mile of the race and won the dang thing! Guess my odd "talent" is working again! I think I know who's going to win the Preakness, too, but during my high school/early college streak, my pick always had to be done on the actual day of the race, so I may change my mind between now and then (or another name may "jump out at me" on Preakness day). We'll just have to wait and see.
I don't think there will be a Triple Crown winner this year. But we'll see about that too.
And, no, I'm not going to start betting on horse races! Or announcing here in advance who I think will win so that you can bet based on my pick, either.
In 2004, I picked Smarty Jones and he won. I don't remember who I picked in 2005, although if I remember correctly I was torn between Afleet Alex (who came in third) and Giacomo (who won), and I never decided on one of them. (We can pretend that, had I decided, I of course would have decided on Giacomo!) Last year, I picked Barbaro to win, and win he did. Poor guy had a rough year after that, and after several surgeries, he finally got to go to horse heaven.
Today, John read me just a handful of the names (6 or so out of the field of 20) for the Kentucky Derby. One "jumped out at me" the way they used to, but I didn't say anything at the time. Later in the day, though, I told several people that the winner would be Street Sense.
When race time rolled around, of course we had to watch. There were several people present, and I told everyone again that I thought the winner would be Street Sense. Three-quarters of the way into the race, when I heard the announcer say that Street Sense was running 19th out of the field of 20, I turned to John and said "guess I can't pick 'em anymore." Imagine my surprise when Street Sense came from behind in the last 1/4 mile of the race and won the dang thing! Guess my odd "talent" is working again! I think I know who's going to win the Preakness, too, but during my high school/early college streak, my pick always had to be done on the actual day of the race, so I may change my mind between now and then (or another name may "jump out at me" on Preakness day). We'll just have to wait and see.
I don't think there will be a Triple Crown winner this year. But we'll see about that too.
And, no, I'm not going to start betting on horse races! Or announcing here in advance who I think will win so that you can bet based on my pick, either.
Friday, May 4, 2007
Bonner Bridge replacement - you can help
If you have come to or left Ocracoke via Hatteras island, you have driven on the Herbert C. Bonner bridge over Oregon Inlet. You may not know that this bridge needs to be replaced. Don't panic: it's not going to fall down tomorrow (it has been verified to be safe for traffic), but it still needs to be replaced.
Now here's the surprising part, which you may not know, even if you did know about the need to replace the bridge: this is not a new development. The need to replace the bridge has been known and discussed, literally, for YEARS. Sixteen, to be exact. Why, you ask, has nothing been done? Well, there seems to be a deadlock regarding the two options for replacing the span. There has been much study and even more conversation, but no decision on how to move forward.
A group called Replace the Bridge Now has been formed to educate people about the need to replace the bridge, and encourage the decision makers to choose an option so the project can begin. They have an informative website, and have also printed bumper stickers and rack cards explaining the situation. I received an email from them today (I have pasted it below), which provides a way for you to add your voice to this cause. It is easy to help - just fill out the online form to send a letter to over 10 people, including NC Governor Mike Easley, NC Senators and Congresspeople, an NCDOT representative, and the Dare County Commisioners. You don't have to write anything, lick envelopes, or buy stamps! Please join the many voices encouraging our leaders to ensure that this project does not stall any longer.
Action alert
Thank you for your adding your voice to the chorus of those who are advocating for the immediate replacement of the Herbert C. Bonner Bridge over Oregon Inlet.
We need your assistance today!
A critical date for the project is nearing. On May 23, 2007, the Merger Team (which is responsible for choosing a single option for bridge replacement) meets in Raleigh North Carolina.
It is imperative that all efforts are exhausted in that meeting to reach a decision so that progress on the project is not, yet again, stalled. As you are aware, the issue of replacing the Bonner Bridge over Oregon Inlet has been mired down for over 16 years in debate over various options despite the fact that it has outlived its expected life span by more than 14 years!
Please DO NOT DELAY! Every single voice counts! Our hopes are that locals, non-resident property owners, and visitors will send letters in overwhelming numbers to Raleigh.
Please visit the website today www.replacethebridgenow.com and click on the photo of the bridge where it says ACT NOW! to participate.
Thank you again for your assistance!
Now here's the surprising part, which you may not know, even if you did know about the need to replace the bridge: this is not a new development. The need to replace the bridge has been known and discussed, literally, for YEARS. Sixteen, to be exact. Why, you ask, has nothing been done? Well, there seems to be a deadlock regarding the two options for replacing the span. There has been much study and even more conversation, but no decision on how to move forward.
A group called Replace the Bridge Now has been formed to educate people about the need to replace the bridge, and encourage the decision makers to choose an option so the project can begin. They have an informative website, and have also printed bumper stickers and rack cards explaining the situation. I received an email from them today (I have pasted it below), which provides a way for you to add your voice to this cause. It is easy to help - just fill out the online form to send a letter to over 10 people, including NC Governor Mike Easley, NC Senators and Congresspeople, an NCDOT representative, and the Dare County Commisioners. You don't have to write anything, lick envelopes, or buy stamps! Please join the many voices encouraging our leaders to ensure that this project does not stall any longer.
Action alert
Thank you for your adding your voice to the chorus of those who are advocating for the immediate replacement of the Herbert C. Bonner Bridge over Oregon Inlet.
We need your assistance today!
A critical date for the project is nearing. On May 23, 2007, the Merger Team (which is responsible for choosing a single option for bridge replacement) meets in Raleigh North Carolina.
It is imperative that all efforts are exhausted in that meeting to reach a decision so that progress on the project is not, yet again, stalled. As you are aware, the issue of replacing the Bonner Bridge over Oregon Inlet has been mired down for over 16 years in debate over various options despite the fact that it has outlived its expected life span by more than 14 years!
Please DO NOT DELAY! Every single voice counts! Our hopes are that locals, non-resident property owners, and visitors will send letters in overwhelming numbers to Raleigh.
Please visit the website today www.replacethebridgenow.com and click on the photo of the bridge where it says ACT NOW! to participate.
Thank you again for your assistance!
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Rollercoaster spring
The weather has been like a rollercoaster this spring: the temperature goes up, then it goes down, back up again, then down again, and on and on that way. Today was a down day. It was cloudy and a cool wind blew all day, significantly lowering the temperatures from where they have been for the last few days. Just when I think spring has arrived to stay, it seems to take a hike again and we slide back toward late winter!
The annual OISFT (that's the Ocracoke Island Surf Fishing Tournament) is happening this week, and I suspect the contestants don't mind the weather at all, as long as it is not pouring rain and the fish are still biting! Two years ago, we had an awful Nor'easter during the OISFT which severely hampered the contest. The tent they set up at the Community Center for the Friday evening pig pickin' blew away; well, the frame was still there, but the tent material was no longer on it! The show must go on, though, so they moved the dinner indoors and gave awards anyway, for the day or so worth of fishing that had been done before the weather went downhill. This year, the weather has cooperated (so far), and the number of pounds of fish caught will be much higher than it was in 2005, I'm sure!
The annual OISFT (that's the Ocracoke Island Surf Fishing Tournament) is happening this week, and I suspect the contestants don't mind the weather at all, as long as it is not pouring rain and the fish are still biting! Two years ago, we had an awful Nor'easter during the OISFT which severely hampered the contest. The tent they set up at the Community Center for the Friday evening pig pickin' blew away; well, the frame was still there, but the tent material was no longer on it! The show must go on, though, so they moved the dinner indoors and gave awards anyway, for the day or so worth of fishing that had been done before the weather went downhill. This year, the weather has cooperated (so far), and the number of pounds of fish caught will be much higher than it was in 2005, I'm sure!
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Full moon
I walked outside under the full moon for a few minutes, just a few minutes ago. The moon is lovely tonight; it looks huge and closer than usual, and slightly yellow. My friend LouAnn said that this is called the corn moon, so maybe the yellow look is why they call it that. Or maybe it's just something in the atmosphere tonight, or my eyes; who knows?
I heard some distant rumbling thunder as I walked outside, too. I swear it seems that, more often than not, it rains at night here. I guess Ocracoke is Camelot! :)
I heard some distant rumbling thunder as I walked outside, too. I swear it seems that, more often than not, it rains at night here. I guess Ocracoke is Camelot! :)
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Berkley Manor update
A reader requested an update on the status of saving the Berkley Manor. That is certainly a current and hot topic around here.
Here's the background:
- Several years ago, a group, called the Berkley Manor Steering Committee (BSC), was formed to attempt to purchase the property.
- This group ended up working with the Trust for Public Land, but there was a need for the community to show some good faith regarding what monies it would provide for the process (for example, if the Trust purchased the property, how would the community gain the funding required to maintain it?)
- The BSC approached then Representative Culpepper with the challenge; he suggested that the community consider an additional occupancy tax (which is a tax paid for lodging, including room rentals (B&Bs, hotels, etc.) and whole house rentals) and use the funds generated for this and similar projects. Currently, a 3% occupancy tax is collected on Ocracoke (Hatteras Island, in Dare County, collects 5% I believe...it may be as high as 6%, which is the maximum allowed). There are two other types of taxes which some counties use for funding of this type: land transfer tax and food/beverage tax (on meals in restaurants, not grocery store purchases). My understanding is that legislation limits the number of NC counties which can apply these two kinds of taxes to only a handful, and Hyde is not one of them. (There is proposed legislation which would enable all 100 NC counties to use these two taxes if they chose to do so, but it remains to be seen whether that will pass into law).
- The BSC worked with the Hyde County Commissioners to request and receive their support for this proposal.
- Rep. Culpepper left and was replaced by Rep. Tim Spear; when Tim took over, he was obligated to follow up on any open items Culpepper had left behind (one of which was the request for legislation enabling Ocracoke to pass an additional occupancy tax of up to 2%).
- Rep. Spear brought the request to the NC House, which passed it into law (SL2006-0128) for Hyde County, and several other counties as well. The legislation requires that 2/3 of funds raised be used for marketing, leaving 1/3 to potentially be used for projects like the Berkley (the final 1/3 must be used for "tourism related" projects, but the Berkley could fall into that category if it were used as a visitor or information center, which had been suggested.
Now here's where it gets a bit fuzzy:
- Depending whom you ask, the lodging business owners (hotels, motels, B&Bs, realty companies, etc.) were or were not asked for their opinion on this proposal to add to a tax which they collect.
One thing is for sure, though: now that they (the lodging owners) know about the proposed tax, several of them are not pleased about it. They have formed an organization (called the Ocracoke Lodging Association, or OLA) and have written a letter requesting that the Hyde County Commissioners pursue a repeal of the enabling legislation.
In the meantime, the Berkley property has remained on the open market, and unfortunately it is now under contract to another buyer. Here's the update printed in the spring Mullet Wrapper:
The Berkley Manor Steering Committee (BSC) met with Mike Nolan, owner of Berkley Manor, on April 4, where he announced that the property is under contract with another party, who is not a public or non-profit entity. Committee members and Mr. Nolan were both disappointed that funding could not be secured to allow this historic property to become the civic, cultural, and recreational center the community has envisioned. Both Mr. Nolan and the BSC expressed their deep thanks to the Trust for Public Land and its Raleigh office director, David Proper, for their enormous dedication and support over the past several years exploring various conventional and innovative funding options. The BSC expressed its hope the new owners will work with the community to keep the historic Manor and its green-space a positive attribute of Ocracoke village.
There are still folks on the island who feel that the additional Occupancy Tax should be passed anyway, as the monies could be used to benefit Ocracoke tourism in other ways and for other projects.
Wow, that was probably WAY more information than you wanted! I just happen to have spent a good bit of time talking with a variety of people about this topic recently, so I had a lot in my head about it. The answer to the next question might not be quite as thorough!
Here's the background:
- Several years ago, a group, called the Berkley Manor Steering Committee (BSC), was formed to attempt to purchase the property.
- This group ended up working with the Trust for Public Land, but there was a need for the community to show some good faith regarding what monies it would provide for the process (for example, if the Trust purchased the property, how would the community gain the funding required to maintain it?)
- The BSC approached then Representative Culpepper with the challenge; he suggested that the community consider an additional occupancy tax (which is a tax paid for lodging, including room rentals (B&Bs, hotels, etc.) and whole house rentals) and use the funds generated for this and similar projects. Currently, a 3% occupancy tax is collected on Ocracoke (Hatteras Island, in Dare County, collects 5% I believe...it may be as high as 6%, which is the maximum allowed). There are two other types of taxes which some counties use for funding of this type: land transfer tax and food/beverage tax (on meals in restaurants, not grocery store purchases). My understanding is that legislation limits the number of NC counties which can apply these two kinds of taxes to only a handful, and Hyde is not one of them. (There is proposed legislation which would enable all 100 NC counties to use these two taxes if they chose to do so, but it remains to be seen whether that will pass into law).
- The BSC worked with the Hyde County Commissioners to request and receive their support for this proposal.
- Rep. Culpepper left and was replaced by Rep. Tim Spear; when Tim took over, he was obligated to follow up on any open items Culpepper had left behind (one of which was the request for legislation enabling Ocracoke to pass an additional occupancy tax of up to 2%).
- Rep. Spear brought the request to the NC House, which passed it into law (SL2006-0128) for Hyde County, and several other counties as well. The legislation requires that 2/3 of funds raised be used for marketing, leaving 1/3 to potentially be used for projects like the Berkley (the final 1/3 must be used for "tourism related" projects, but the Berkley could fall into that category if it were used as a visitor or information center, which had been suggested.
Now here's where it gets a bit fuzzy:
- Depending whom you ask, the lodging business owners (hotels, motels, B&Bs, realty companies, etc.) were or were not asked for their opinion on this proposal to add to a tax which they collect.
One thing is for sure, though: now that they (the lodging owners) know about the proposed tax, several of them are not pleased about it. They have formed an organization (called the Ocracoke Lodging Association, or OLA) and have written a letter requesting that the Hyde County Commissioners pursue a repeal of the enabling legislation.
In the meantime, the Berkley property has remained on the open market, and unfortunately it is now under contract to another buyer. Here's the update printed in the spring Mullet Wrapper:
The Berkley Manor Steering Committee (BSC) met with Mike Nolan, owner of Berkley Manor, on April 4, where he announced that the property is under contract with another party, who is not a public or non-profit entity. Committee members and Mr. Nolan were both disappointed that funding could not be secured to allow this historic property to become the civic, cultural, and recreational center the community has envisioned. Both Mr. Nolan and the BSC expressed their deep thanks to the Trust for Public Land and its Raleigh office director, David Proper, for their enormous dedication and support over the past several years exploring various conventional and innovative funding options. The BSC expressed its hope the new owners will work with the community to keep the historic Manor and its green-space a positive attribute of Ocracoke village.
There are still folks on the island who feel that the additional Occupancy Tax should be passed anyway, as the monies could be used to benefit Ocracoke tourism in other ways and for other projects.
Wow, that was probably WAY more information than you wanted! I just happen to have spent a good bit of time talking with a variety of people about this topic recently, so I had a lot in my head about it. The answer to the next question might not be quite as thorough!
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